tropical storm watch turns toward northern Gulf Coast
According to the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Francine is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Tuesday and make landfall on Louisiana’s northern Gulf Coast.
Francine’s center was located about 120 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande River and 415 miles south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana, with maximum sustained winds of 65, according to the NHC’s 5 a.m. advisory. It was moving at a speed of miles per hour and moving towards the north. 5 mph to the northwest
Tropical cyclone winds extend up to 140 miles.
A hurricane warning has been issued for the Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass east to Morgan City. A hurricane watch is in effect for the Louisiana coast from Morgan City eastward to Grand Isle.
A tropical storm warning is in effect from Morgan City to Grand Isle, Louisiana. High Island, Texas to Sabine Pass; from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield; and La Pesca to the mouth of the Rio Grande.
A tropical storm watch is in effect from Barra del Tordo to La Pesca, Mexico. Port Mansfield to High Island, Texas; Grand Isle east of Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including metropolitan New Orleans; Lake Pontchartrain; and Lake Moripas.
A storm surge warning is in effect for High Island, Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River. and Vermilion Bay. Storm surge watches are in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border. Lake Moripas; and Lake Pontchartrain.
The system is forecast to continue moving slowly to the north-northwest toward the coast of Texas and Mexico on Monday, but will then shift to the northeast and accelerate the stream.
“On the forecast track, Francine is expected to remain off the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through today and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday,” forecasters said. “Francine will likely become a hurricane today, with significant strengthening expected before it makes landfall.”
It is forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph and gusts of 120 mph along the Texas and Louisiana coast between Houston and New Orleans. Will fall somewhere in uncertainty.
All eyes are on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six in the Gulf of Mexico this morning.
— CIRA (@CIRA_CSU) September 9, 2024
The system is likely to become a hurricane and bring significant impacts to the U.S. Gulf Coast. pic.twitter.com/mNlieOHru6
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected in the warning areas by Wednesday morning.
Francine is expected to receive 4 to 8 inches by Thursday morning, with local amounts of up to 12 inches total. This rainfall can lead to considerable flash and urban flooding risk.
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The greatest risk of storm surge is 5-10 feet above normal with low tides of 4-7 feet east and west from Cameron to Vermilion Bay, including Port Fortune, Louisiana, and from Port Fortune to the mouth of the Mississippi.
“The deepest water will occur near and immediately east of the landfall site, where the surge will bring large and dangerous waves,” the NHC said. “Storm surges are not expected to threaten the levees of the hazard reduction system. However, there may be some overtopping at local levels.
Some minor coastal flooding is possible along the Mexican coast in areas with onshore winds, while swell will continue to spread along the northwestern Gulf Coast through midweek.
“Climatic conditions appear only marginally favorable for some minor development over the next couple of days, but a tropical depression could still form during that time as the system straddles the central tropical Atlantic.” The soothsayers said.
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The NHC gives it a 40% chance of developing over the next two days and a 40% chance over the next seven.
The other is a trough of low pressure several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands that is expected to merge with a strong tropical wave that has emerged off the coast of West Africa in a few days.
Atmospheric conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form later this week as the system moves west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. ‘ said the forecasters.
The NHC gives it a 30% chance of growth over the next two days and a 70% chance over the next seven.
The formation of Tropical Storm Francine marked the end of a gap of about a month between the formation of storms named Ernesto, which finally formed as a tropical storm on August 12 and became a hurricane.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November. 30.
The NHC is also tracking two Atlantic systems that have a chance to develop into tropical depressions or storms. After Francine, Gordon and Helen are next on the list for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
A central tropical Atlantic is a long area of low pressure that limits shower activity.
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